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Warrant economics, call-put policy options and the fallacies of economic theory

Hatgioannides, John; Karanassou, Marika - 2011

In this paper we aim to trace the roots of the ongoing economic mayhem and to unmask the chorus of the tragedy which plays on the world stage. The main thesis of our work is that, despite the triumphant rhetoric praising the merits of perfect competition, the global fields of the dysfunctional...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009488633

A unified framework for dimension reduction in forecasting

Barbarino, Alessandro; Bura, Efstathia - 2017

series forecasting models for economic variables. In these models, the reduction of the predictors and the modeling and … forecasting of the response y are carried out in two separate and independent phases. We introduce a potentially more attractive … of widely used macroeconomic series data with one or two sufficient reductions delivering similar forecasting performance …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011708094

Fiscal multipliers and financial crises

Faria-e-Castro, Miguel - 2018

What type of fiscal policy is most effective during a financial crisis? I study the macroeconomic effects of the US fiscal policy response to the Great Recession, accounting not only for standard tools such as government purchases and transfers but also for financial sector interventions such as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011914285

Estimating time-varying DSGE models using minimum distance methods

Giraitis, Liudas; Kapetanios, George; Theodoridis, … - 2015

Following Giraitis, Kapetanios, and Yates (2014b), this paper uses kernel methods to estimate a seven variable time-varying (TV) vector autoregressive (VAR) model on the data set constructed by Smets and Wouters (2007). We apply an indirect inference method to map from this TV VAR to time...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011405253

Unemployment risk

Kiley, Michael T. - 2018 - Version 3

Fluctuations in upside risks to unemployment over the medium term are examined using quantile regressions. U.S. experience reveals an elevated risk of large increases in unemployment when inflation or credit growth is high and when the unemployment rate is low. Inflation was a significant...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012016326

How fast are semiconductor prices falling?

Byrne, David; Oliner, Stephen; Sichel, Daniel E. - 2017

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the United States suggests that semiconductor prices have barely been falling in recent years, a dramatic contrast to the rapid declines reported from the mid-1980s to the early 2000s. This slowdown in the rate of decline is puzzling in light of evidence that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011708124

A numerical analysis of optimal extraction and trade of oil under climate policy

Massetti, Emanuele; Sferra, Fabio - 2010

We introduce endogenous investments for increasing conventional and non-conventional oil extraction capacity in the integrated assessment model WITCH. The international price of oil emerges as the Nash equilibrium of a non-cooperative game. When carbon emissions are not constrained, oil is used...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008737181

General-Equilibrium Effects of Investment Tax Incentives

Edge, Rochelle M. - 2011

This paper develops a new-Keynesian model with nominal depreciation allowances to consider the effects of temporary tax-based investment incentives on capital spending and real activity. In particular, we investigate the effects of a temporary expensing allowance on investment in partial and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128646

Are Spectral Estimators Useful for Implementing Long-Run Restrictions in SVARs?

Mertens, Elmar - 2011

No, not really, since spectral estimators suffer from small sample and misspecification biases just as VARs do. Spectral estimators are no panacea for implementing long-run restrictions. In addition, when combining VAR coefficients with non-parametric estimates of the spectral density, care...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128713

The Power of Narratives in Economic Forecasts

Sharpe, Steven A. - 2020

. Quantile regressions indicate that most of sentiment's forecasting power arises from signaling downside risks to the economy …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834185

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