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A unified framework for dimension reduction in forecasting
Barbarino, Alessandro; Bura, Efstathia - 2017
series forecasting models for economic variables. In these models, the reduction of the predictors and the modeling and … forecasting of the response y are carried out in two separate and independent phases. We introduce a potentially more attractive … of widely used macroeconomic series data with one or two sufficient reductions delivering similar forecasting performance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011708094
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Income inequality, financial crises, and monetary policy
Cairó, Isabel; Sim, Jae W. - 2018
We construct a general equilibrium model in which income inequality results in insufficient aggregate demand, deflation pressure, and excessive credit growth by allocating income to agents featuring low marginal propensity to consume, and if excessive, can lead to an endogenous financial crisis....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011932429
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Unemployment risk
Kiley, Michael T. - 2018 - Version 3
Fluctuations in upside risks to unemployment over the medium term are examined using quantile regressions. U.S. experience reveals an elevated risk of large increases in unemployment when inflation or credit growth is high and when the unemployment rate is low. Inflation was a significant...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012016326
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How fast are semiconductor prices falling?
Byrne, David; Oliner, Stephen; Sichel, Daniel E. - 2017
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the United States suggests that semiconductor prices have barely been falling in recent years, a dramatic contrast to the rapid declines reported from the mid-1980s to the early 2000s. This slowdown in the rate of decline is puzzling in light of evidence that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011708124
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Assessing the Change in Labor Market Conditions
Chung, Hess T. - 2015
This paper describes a dynamic factor model of 19 U.S. labor market indicators, covering the broad categories of unemployment and underemployment, employment, workweeks, wages, vacancies, hiring, layoffs, quits, and surveys of consumers' and businesses' perceptions. The resulting labor market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013031124
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Labor Force Participation : Recent Developments and Future Prospects
Aaronson, Stephanie - 2014
Since 2007, the labor force participation rate has fallen from about 66 percent to about 63 percent. The sources of this decline have been widely debated among academics and policymakers, with some arguing that the participation rate is depressed due to weak labor demand while others argue that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013047177
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Assessing the Change in Labor Market Conditions
Chung, Hess T.; Fallick, Bruce; Nekarda, Christopher J.; … - 2022
This paper describes a dynamic factor model of 19 U.S. labor market indicators, covering the broad categories of unemployment and underemployment, employment, workweeks, wages, vacancies, hiring, layoffs, quits, and surveys of consumers' and businesses' perceptions. The resulting labor market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014088089
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Evaluating the conditionality of judgmental forecasts
Berge, Travis J.; Chang, Andrew C.; Sinha, Nitish Ranjan - 2019
We propose a framework to evaluate the conditionality of forecasts. The crux of our framework is the observation that a forecast is conditional if revisions to the conditioning factor are faithfully incorporated into the remainder of the forecast. We consider whether the Greenbook, Blue Chip,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012016753
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Assessing macroeconomic tail risk
Loria, Francesca; Matthes, Christian; Zhang, Donghai - 2019
What drives macroeconomic tail risk? To answer this question, we borrow a definition of macroeconomic risk from Adrian et al. (2019) by studying (left-tail) percentiles of the forecast distribution of GDP growth. We use local projections (Jordà , 2005) to assess how this measure of risk moves...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012018464
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Understanding the new normal : the role of demographics
Gagnon, Etienne; Johannsen, Benjamin K.; López-Salido, … - 2016
Since the onset of the Great Recession, the U.S. economy has experienced low real GDP growth and low real interest rates, including for long maturities. We show that these developments were largely predictable by calibrating an overlapping-generation model with a rich demographic structure to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011578741