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The Nature of Countercyclical Income Risk

Guvenen, Fatih - 2015

This paper studies the nature of business cycle variation in individual earnings risk using a dataset from the U.S. Social Security Administration, which contains (uncapped) earnings histories for millions of anonymous individuals. The base sample is a nationally representative panel containing...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013035613

Unemployment rate benchmarks

Crump, Richard K.; Nekarda, Christopher J.; … - 2020

This paper discusses various concepts of unemployment rate benchmarks that are frequently used by policymakers for … particular, we propose two broad categories of unemployment rate benchmarks: (1) a longer-run unemployment rate expected to … prevail after adjusting to business cycle shocks and (2) a stable-price unemployment rate tied to inflationary pressures. We …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012389411

Labor Market Tightness During WWI and the Postwar Recession of 1920-1921

Anderson, Haelim Park; Chang, Jin Wook - 2022

The U.S. economy entered the 1920s with a robust job market and high inflation but fell into a recession following the Federal Reserve's discount rate hikes to tame inflation. Using a newly constructed data set, we study labor market dynamics during this period. We find that labor markets were...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014030258

What Drives Movements in the Unemployment Rate? A Decomposition of the Beveridge Curve

Barnichon, Regis - 2011

This paper presents a framework to interpret movements in the Beveridge curve and analyze unemployment fluctuations. We … decompose the unemployment rate into three main components: (1) a component driven by changes in labor demand – movements along … driven by changes in the efficiency of matching unemployed workers to jobs. We find that cyclical movements in unemployment …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013122077

Precautionary On-the-Job Search Over the Business Cycle

Ahn, Hie Joo; Shao, Ling - 2017

This paper provides new evidence for cyclicality in the job-search effort of employed workers, on-the-job search (OJS) intensity, in the United States using American Time Use Survey and various cyclical indicators. We find that OJS intensity is countercyclical along both the extensive and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014122284

From Many Series, One Cycle : Improved Estimates of the Business Cycle from a Multivariate Unobserved Components Model

Fleischman, Charles A. - 2011

, labor-force participation, weekly hours, and the NAIRU. We find that labor-market variables — especially the unemployment …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013118624

Firm Entry and Employment Dynamics in the Great Recession

Siemer, Michael - 2014

The 2007-2009 recession is characterized by: a large drop in employment, an unprecedented decline in firm entry, and a slow recovery. Using confidential firm-level data, I show that financial constraints reduced employment growth in small relative to large firms by 4.8 to 10.5 percentage points....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013049182

Earnings Business Cycles : The COVID Recession, Recovery, and Policy Response

Larrimore, Jeff; Mortenson, Jacob; Splinter, David - 2023

attributable to larger Covid-era stimulus payments and unemployment insurance …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014354830

Entry, Variable Markups, and Business Cycles

Gamber, William L. - 2022

The creation of new businesses declines in recessions. In this paper, I study the effects of pro-cyclical business formation on aggregate employment in a general equilibrium model of firm dynamics. The key features of the model are that the elasticity of demand faced by firms falls with their...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013309613

Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in the United States During and After the Great Recession

Fallick, Bruce - 2016

2008-09, during which the unemployment rate topped 10 percent and price deflation was at times seen as a distinct …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210362