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This paper discusses various concepts of unemployment rate benchmarks that are frequently used by policymakers for … particular, we propose two broad categories of unemployment rate benchmarks: (1) a longer-run unemployment rate expected to … prevail after adjusting to business cycle shocks and (2) a stable-price unemployment rate tied to inflationary pressures. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012389411
Many firms adjust employment in a "lumpy" manner -- infrequently and in large bursts. In this paper, I show that lumpy adjustments can arise from concerns about the incentives of remaining workers. Specifically, I develop a model in which a firm's productivity depends on its workers' effort and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011709242
The U.S. economy entered the 1920s with a robust job market and high inflation but fell into a recession following the Federal Reserve's discount rate hikes to tame inflation. Using a newly constructed data set, we study labor market dynamics during this period. We find that labor markets were...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014030258
Since the beginning of the recent recession, the employment-population ratio for high-school age youth (16-17 years old) has fallen by nearly a third, to its lowest level ever. However, this recession has exacerbated a longer-run downward trend that actually began in the 1990s and accelerated in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013118652
It has been well documented that the share of the working-age population employed in "middle-skill" occupations has been falling for some time, while the share in lower- and higher-skill jobs has been rising -- i.e. "polarization" of the labor market (e.g. Autor 2010). However, the dynamics and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013073601
We estimate the causal effects of heroin use on labor market outcomes by proxying for heroin use with prior exposure to oxycodone, the largest of the prescription opioids with a well-documented history of abuse. After a nationwide tightening in the supply of oxycodone in 2010, states with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013288801
We propose a measure for the importance of aggregate shocks for fluctuations in job flows at the firm level. Using data for the Portuguese economy, we find that large and old firms exhibit higher relative sensitivity to aggregate shocks and have a disproportional influence over the dynamics of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012764198
internalize how their individual actions affect the labor market outcomes of competitors in a common unemployment pool. We provide …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011932219
The pace of job reallocation has declined in all U.S. sectors since 2000. In standard models, aggregate job reallocation depends on (a) the dispersion of idiosyncratic productivity shocks faced by businesses and (b) the marginal responsiveness of businesses to those shocks. Using several novel...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011803797
unemployment and underemployment, employment, workweeks, wages, vacancies, hiring, layoffs, quits, and surveys of consumers' and … payroll employment and the unemployment rate. Other influential indicators include the insured unemployment rate, consumers … perspective of the model, the unemployment rate declined a bit faster over the past two years than was consistent with the other …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013031124