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Fiscal policy and aggregate demand in the U.S. before, during and following the Great Recession

Cashin, David; Lenney, Jamie; Lutz, Byron F.; Peterman, … - 2017

We examine the effect of federal and subnational fiscal policy on aggregate demand in the U.S. by introducing the fiscal effect (FE) measure. FE can be decomposed into three components. Discretionary FE quantifies the effect of discretionary or legislated policy changes on aggregate demand....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011709630

The impact of credit risk mispricing on mortgage lending during the subprime boom

Kahn, James A.; Kay, Benjamin S. - 2019

We provide new evidence that credit supply shifts contributed to the U.S. subprime mortgage boom and bust. We collect … original data on both government and private mortgage insurance premiums from 1999-2016, and document that prior to 2008 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012181334

What macroeconomic conditions lead financial crises?

Kiley, Michael T. - 2018 - Version 6

Research has suggested that a rapid pace of nonfinancial borrowing reliably precedes financial crises, placing the pace of debt growth at the center of frameworks for the deployment of macroprudential policies. I reconsider the role of asset-prices and current account deficits as leading...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011932225

Financial frictions, financial shocks, and aggregate volatility

Fuentes-Albero, Cristina - 2018 - This version: July 2018

The Great Moderation in the U.S. economy was accompanied by a widespread increase in the volatility of financial variables. We explore the sources of the divergent patterns in volatilities by estimating a model with time-varying financial rigidities subject to structural breaks in the size of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012016100

Employment in the Great Recession : how important were household credit supply shocks?

García, Daniel - 2018

the Great Recession can be explained by reductions in the supply of mortgage credit. I construct a mortgage credit supply … instrument at the county level, the weighted average (by prerecession mortgage market shares) of liquidity-driven lender shocks … during the recession. The reduction in mortgage supply explains about 15 percent of the employment decline. The job losses …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012016542

The money view versus the credit view

Baker, Sarah S.; López-Salido, José David; Nelson, Edward - 2018

We argue that Schularick and Taylor's (2012) comparison of credit growth and monetary growth as financial-crisis predictors does not necessarily provide a valid basis for achieving one of their stated intentions: evaluating the relative merits of the "money view" and "credit view" as accounts of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011932271

Macroeconomic forecasting in times of crises

Guerrón-Quintana, Pablo A.; Zhong, Molin - 2017

We propose a parsimonious semiparametric method for macroeconomic forecasting during episodes of sudden changes. Based on the notion of clustering and similarity, we partition the time series into blocks, search for the closest blocks to the most recent block of observations, and with the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011708260

The Great Recession and a missing generation of exporters

Lincoln, William F.; McCallum, Andrew H.; Siemer, Michael - 2017

The collapse of international trade surrounding the Great Recession has garnered significant attention. This paper studies firm entry and exit in foreign markets and their role in the post-recession recovery of U.S. exports using confidential microdata from the U.S. Census Bureau. We find that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011803263

Supervisory stress testing for CCPs : a macro-prudential, two-tier approach

Anderson, Edward; Cerezetti, Fernando; Manning, Mark - 2018

Stress testing has become an increasingly important mechanism to support a variety of financial stability objectives. Stress tests can be used to test the individual resilience of a single entity or to assess the system-wide vulnerabilities of a network. This article examines the role of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012016626

Liquidity regulation and financial intermediaries

Macchiavelli, Marco; Pettit, Luke - 2018

We document several effects of the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) rule on dealers' financing and intermediation of securities. For identification, we exploit the fact that the US implementation is more stringent than that in foreign jurisdictions. In line with LCR incentives, US dealers reduce...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012016652