disaggregate unemployment and in the cross-sectional differences across individuals of the duration of unemployment spells. The …-space model of Ahn and Hamilton (2016). I found that the contribution of each factor to the dynamics of disaggregate unemployment …

This paper discusses various concepts of unemployment rate benchmarks that are frequently used by policymakers for … particular, we propose two broad categories of unemployment rate benchmarks: (1) a longer-run unemployment rate expected to … prevail after adjusting to business cycle shocks and (2) a stable-price unemployment rate tied to inflationary pressures. We …

This paper presents a framework to interpret movements in the Beveridge curve and analyze unemployment fluctuations. We … decompose the unemployment rate into three main components: (1) a component driven by changes in labor demand – movements along … driven by changes in the efficiency of matching unemployed workers to jobs. We find that cyclical movements in unemployment …

Why do more educated workers experience lower unemployment rates and lower employment volatility? A closer look at the …-specific human capital reduce the outside option of workers, implying less incentives to separate. The model generates unemployment …

We argue that long-run inflation has nonlinear and state-dependent effects on unemployment, output, and welfare. Using … anticipated inflation and unemployment. Second, there is also a positive correlation between anticipated inflation and … unemployment volatility. Third, the long-run inflation-unemployment relationship is not only positive, but also stronger when …

unemployment between the early 1980s and the early 2000s, and a decline in participation since the early 2000s. Using CPS micro … nonparticipants implies a lower unemployment rate, because marginal nonparticipants enter the labor force mostly through unemployment …

Fluctuations in upside risks to unemployment over the medium term are examined using quantile regressions. U ….S. experience reveals an elevated risk of large increases in unemployment when inflation or credit growth is high and when the … unemployment rate is low. Inflation was a significant contributor to unemployment risk in the 1970s and early 1980s, and …

higher wages. This increases firms' incentives to post more vacancies, which makes unemployment volatile and sensitive to … aggregate shocks. The model is robust to two major criticisms of existing theories of sluggish wages and volatile unemployment … explains 70% of unemployment volatility …