We consider what, if any, relationship there is between monetary aggregates and inflation, and whether there is any … paribus unitary relationship between inflation and money growth. Simulations of a New Keynesian model suggest that we should … allowance needed for the phase shift in the relationship between monetary growth rates and inflation. While financial innovation …

Since Kydland and Prescott (1977) and Barro and Gordon (1983), most studies of the problem of the inflation bias …-quadratic approach to the problem in favor of a projection method approach. We investigate the size of the inflation bias that arises in … a microfounded nonlinear environment with Calvo price setting. The inflation bias is found to lie between 1% and 6% for …

Firmly-anchored inflation expectations are widely viewed as playing a central role in the successful conduct of … monetary policy. This paper presents estimates of trend inflation, based on information contained in survey expectations, the … term structure of interest rates, and realized inflation rates. My application combines a variety of data sources at the …

underlying inflation and business cycle components. Here, we use a very general model structure, of widespread relevance for time … econometric measures of the trend in total inflation that make optimal use of the signal content in core inflation …

Inflation-indexed securities would appear to be the most direct source of information about inflation expectations and … real interest rates" (Bernanke, 2004). In this paper we study the term structure of real interest rates, expected inflation … and inflation risk premia using data on prices of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) over the period 2000 …

This paper studies the welfare consequences of exogenous variations in trend inflation in a New Keynesian economy …. Consumption and leisure respond asymmetrically to a rise and a decline in trend inflation. As a result, an increase in the … variance of shocks to the trend inflation process decreases welfare not only by increasing the volatilities of consumption and …

examines the usefulness of these estimates for inflation forecasting. Over this period, we find that the Federal Reserve … estimation techniques. In contrast to previous work, we also find no deterioration in forecast performance when inflation …

Consumer price inflation excluding food and energy often performs worse than other measures of underlying inflation in … out-of-sample tests of predicting future inflation or tracking an ex-post measure of underlying trend inflation …. Nonetheless, inflation excluding food and energy remains popular for its simplicity and transparency. Would excluding different …

This paper examines a number of alternative PCE price inflation measures including overall PCE inflation, PCE inflation … excluding food and energy, trimmed mean PCE inflation, component-smoothed inflation, variance-weighted inflation, inflation with … weights based on disaggregated regressions, and survey measures of inflation expectations. When averaging across a handful of …