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investment; the impact of uncertainty on investment occurs primarily through changes in credit spreads; and innovations in credit … spreads have a strong effect on investment, irrespective of the level of uncertainty. These findings raise a question … financial shocks. By influencing the effective supply of credit, both types of shocks exert a powerful effect on investment and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013046471
In this paper, we propose an econometric model of the joint dynamic relationship between the yield curve and the economy to predict business cycles. We examine the predictive value of the yield curve to forecast future economic growth as well as the beginning and end of economic recessions at...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013104542
investment in the 2001 and 2007 -- 9 recessions. We examine economic interpretations of this stylized fact using a model where …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013106762
investment. The boom was sharply reversed in 2001, and a great deal of evidence suggests that the capital stock had become … excessive. Standard equilibrium business cycle models have difficulties in predicting the investment boom and overshooting. An … embodied technology model is constructed to replicate the pattern of investment boom and collapse. Unlike previous models of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012723714
Motor vehicle dealerships in the United States tend to hold inventories equivalent to around 65 days' worth of sales, a relatively high level that has been nearly unchanged for 50 years. Despite playing a prominent role in the volatility of U.S. business cycles, very little is known about why...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210408
. Although the volatility of total inventory investment has fallen, the decline occurred well before the mid-1980s and was driven …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014076151
This paper considers a non-stationary dynamic factor model for large datasets to disentangle long-run from short-run co-movements. We first propose a new Quasi Maximum Likelihood estimator of the model based on the Kalman Smoother and the Expectation Maximisation algorithm. The asymptotic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011803273
Stylized facts on U.S. output and interest rates have so far proved hard to match with DSGE models. But model predictions hinge on the joint specification of economic structure and a set of driving processes. In a model, different shocks often induce different comovements, such that the overall...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128641
. Spectral estimators are no panacea for implementing long-run restrictions. In addition, when combining VAR coefficients with … in the non-parametric estimates about serial correlation in VAR residuals. This paper uses a spectral factorization to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128713
We construct new estimates of potential output and the output gap using a multivariate approach that allows for an explicit role for measurement errors in the decomposition of real output. Because we include data on hours, output, employment, and the labor force, we are able to decompose our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013118624