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Kiley, Michael T. - 2011

What is the output gap? There are many definitions in the economics literature, all of which have a long history. I discuss three alternatives: the deviation of output from its long-run stochastic trend (i.e., the "Beveridge-Nelson cycle"); the deviation of output from the level consistent with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014184879

Documentation of the Research and Statistics Divisions Estimated DSGE Model of the U.S. Economy : 2006 Version

Edge, Rochelle M.; Kiley, Michael T.; Laforte, Jean-Philippe - 2007

This paper provides documentation for the large-scale estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy used in Edge, Kiley, and Laforte (2007). The model represents part of an ongoing research project (the Federal Reserve Board's Estimated, Dynamic, Optimization-based - FRB/EDO - model project) in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014222384

ICT Services and Their Prices : What Do They Tell Us About Productivity and Technology?

Byrne, David M. - 2017

This paper reassesses the link between ICT prices, technology, and productivity. To understand how the ICT sector could come to the rescue of a whole economy, we extend a multi-sector model due to Oulton (2012) to include ICT services (e.g., cloud services) and use it to calibrate the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012962701

A generalized approach to indeterminacy in linear rational expectations models

Bianchi, Francesco; Nicolò, Giovanni - 2019

We propose a novel approach to deal with the problem of indeterminacy in Linear Rational Expectations models. The … number of explosive roots in presence of indeterminacy. The solution in this expanded state space, if it exists, is always … and any degree of indeterminacy, and it can be implemented even when the boundaries of the determinacy region are unknown …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012181061

Structural Shocks and the Comovements between Output and Interest Rates

Mertens, Elmar - 2011

Stylized facts on U.S. output and interest rates have so far proved hard to match with DSGE models. But model predictions hinge on the joint specification of economic structure and a set of driving processes. In a model, different shocks often induce different comovements, such that the overall...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128641

Are Spectral Estimators Useful for Implementing Long-Run Restrictions in SVARs?

Mertens, Elmar - 2011

No, not really, since spectral estimators suffer from small sample and misspecification biases just as VARs do. Spectral estimators are no panacea for implementing long-run restrictions. In addition, when combining VAR coefficients with non-parametric estimates of the spectral density, care...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128713

The Finances of American Households in the Past Three Recessions : Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances

Moore, Kevin B. - 2011

The downturn in economic activity in the U.S. that began in December 2007 (as determined by researchers with the National Bureau of Economic Research) has been noticeably deeper and has already lasted considerably longer than the prior two recessions - those beginning in July 1990 and in March...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128716

From Many Series, One Cycle : Improved Estimates of the Business Cycle from a Multivariate Unobserved Components Model

Fleischman, Charles A. - 2011

We construct new estimates of potential output and the output gap using a multivariate approach that allows for an explicit role for measurement errors in the decomposition of real output. Because we include data on hours, output, employment, and the labor force, we are able to decompose our...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013118624

Have Cyclical Movements in the Unemployment Rate Become More Persistent?

Figura, Andrew - 2011

I examine whether the cyclical behavior of unemployment has changed over the post WWII period. Specifically, I test whether cyclical movements in unemployment have become more persistent. Finding that they have, indeed, become more persistent, I then take some initial steps in explaining why. I...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013118659

What Drives Movements in the Unemployment Rate? A Decomposition of the Beveridge Curve

Barnichon, Regis - 2011

This paper presents a framework to interpret movements in the Beveridge curve and analyze unemployment fluctuations. We decompose the unemployment rate into three main components: (1) a component driven by changes in labor demand – movements along the Beveridge curve and shifts in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013122077

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