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Kiley, Michael T. - 2011

What is the output gap? There are many definitions in the economics literature, all of which have a long history. I discuss three alternatives: the deviation of output from its long-run stochastic trend (i.e., the "Beveridge-Nelson cycle"); the deviation of output from the level consistent with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014184879

Documentation of the Research and Statistics Divisions Estimated DSGE Model of the U.S. Economy : 2006 Version

Edge, Rochelle M.; Kiley, Michael T.; Laforte, Jean-Philippe - 2007

This paper provides documentation for the large-scale estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy used in Edge, Kiley, and Laforte (2007). The model represents part of an ongoing research project (the Federal Reserve Board's Estimated, Dynamic, Optimization-based - FRB/EDO - model project) in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014222384

ICT Services and Their Prices : What Do They Tell Us About Productivity and Technology?

Byrne, David M. - 2017

This paper reassesses the link between ICT prices, technology, and productivity. To understand how the ICT sector could come to the rescue of a whole economy, we extend a multi-sector model due to Oulton (2012) to include ICT services (e.g., cloud services) and use it to calibrate the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012962701

A generalized approach to indeterminacy in linear rational expectations models

Bianchi, Francesco; Nicolò, Giovanni - 2019

We propose a novel approach to deal with the problem of indeterminacy in Linear Rational Expectations models. The … number of explosive roots in presence of indeterminacy. The solution in this expanded state space, if it exists, is always … and any degree of indeterminacy, and it can be implemented even when the boundaries of the determinacy region are unknown …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012181061

Forecasting Recessions Using Stall Speeds

Nalewaik, Jeremy - 2011

This paper presents evidence that the economic stall speed concept has some empirical content, and can be moderately useful in forecasting recessions. Specifically, output tends to transition to a slow-growth phase at the end of expansions before falling into a recession, and the paper designs...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014182079

Financial Capital and the Macroeconomy : Policy Considerations

Kiley, Michael T.; Sim, Jae W. - 2011

We develop a macroeconomic model in which the balance sheet/liquidity condition of financial institutions plays an important role in the determination of asset prices and economic activity. The financial intermediaries in our model are required to make investment commitments before a complete...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014182096

Estimates of R* Consistent with a Supply-Side Structure and a Monetary Policy Rule for the U.S. Economy

González-Astudillo, Manuel; Laforte, Jean-Philippe - 2020

We estimate the natural rate of interest (r*) using a semi-structural model of the U.S. economy that jointly characterizes the trend and cyclical factors of key macroeconomic variables such as output, the unemployment rate, inflation, and short- and long-term interest rates. We specify a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014048732

Income in the Off-Season : Household Adaptation to Yearly Work Interruptions

Coglianese, John M.; Price, Brendan M. - 2020

Joblessness is highly seasonal. To analyze how households adapt to seasonal joblessness, we introduce a measure of seasonal work interruptions premised on the idea that a seasonal worker will tend to exit employment around the same time each year. We show that an excess share of prime-age US...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014048733

Issues Regarding the Use of the Policy Rate Tool

Campbell, Jeffrey R.; King, Thomas B.; Orlik, Anna; … - 2020

We review two nonstandard uses of the policy rate tool, which provide additional stimulus when interest rates are close to or at the effective lower bound—forward guidance and negative interest rate policy. In particular, we survey the use of these tools since the star otf the Great Recession,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014048768

Strengthening the Fomc's Framework in View of the Effective Lower Bound and Some Considerations Related to Time-Inconsistent Strategies

Duarte, Fernando; Johannsen, Benjamin K.; Melosi, Leonardo - 2020

We analyze the framework for monetary policy in view of the effective lower bound (ELB). We find that the ELB is likely to bind in most future recessions and propose some ways that theoretical models imply that the framework could be strengthened. We also discuss ways that commitment strategies,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014048769