Showing 1 - 10 of 191
Cointegration theory provides a flexible class of statistical models that combine long-run relationships and short-run dynamics. This paper presents three likelihood ratio (LR) tests for simultaneously testing restrictions on cointegrating relationships and on how quickly the system reacts to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014057407
This paper proposes a residual based cointegration test with improved power. Based on the idea of Hansen (1995) and Elliott & Jansson (2003) in the unit root testing case, stationary covariates are used to improve the power of the residual based Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test. The asymptotic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013127087
random magnitudes. Jump risk premia are allowed for. We show that the model implies a closed-form representation of yields as …-shaped pattern on employment report days (but not on other days). The model also produces patterns in bond risk premia that are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013005585
This paper proposes a multivariate stochastic volatility-in-vector autoregression model called the conditional autoregressive inverse Wishart-in-VAR (CAIW-in-VAR) model as a framework for studying the real effects of uncertainty shocks. We make three contributions to the literature. First, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210396
We leverage a data rich environment to construct and study a measure of macroeconomic uncertainty for the Korean economy. We provide several stylized facts about uncertainty in Korea from 1991M10-2016M5. We compare and contrast this measure of uncertainty with two other popular uncertainty...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011710042
What is the policy uncertainty surrounding expiring taxes? How uncertain are the approvals of routine extensions of temporary tax policies? To answer these questions, I use event studies to measure cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) for firms that claimed the U.S. research and development (R&D)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011932265
We investigate the uncertainty dynamics surrounding extreme weather events through the lens of option and stock markets by identifying market responses to the uncertainty regarding both potential hurricane landfall and subsequent economic impact. Stock options on firms with establishments...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012181922
-pricing formula applies to far-out-of-the money put options on the stock market when disaster risk dominates, the size distribution of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012182396
estimate "macro risk factors" that drive "bad" (negatively skewed) and "good" (positively skewed) variation for supply and … significantly contribute to the variation yields, risk premiums and return variances for nominal bonds. While overall bond risk … premiums are counter-cyclical, an increase in demand variance lowers risk premiums …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011709342
A risk factor linked to aggregate equity issuance conditions explains the empirical performance of investment factors … based on the asset growth anomaly of Cooper, Gulen, and Schill (2008). This new risk factor, dubbed equity financing risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013405368