When choosing a strategy for monetary policy, policymakers must grapple with mismeasurement of labor market slack, and of the responsiveness of price inflation to that slack. Using stochastic simulations of a small-scale version of the Federal Reserve Board’s principal New Keynesian...

Co-integration analysis as developed by Granger (1981) has been widely used to test for the existence of equilibrium relationships among economic variables. Trust in the outcome of co-integration tests as an aid in identifying long-run relationships is unfounded because a critical element in the...

This paper explores Knightian model uncertainty as a possible explanation of the considerable difference between estimated interest rate rules and optimal feedback descriptions of monetary policy. We focus on two types of uncertainty: (i) unstructured model uncertainty reflected in additive...

The macroeconomic costs of disinflation are considered for the United States in a rational expectations macroeconometric model with sticky prices and imperfect information regarding monetary policy objectives. The analysis centers on simulation experiments using the Board’s new quarterly...

This paper establishes that when equations connecting coefficients from reduced forms with their structural counterparts are inconsistent, a necessary and sufficient condition standard in econometric textbooks for the identifiability of coefficients in linear simultaneous equations systems is...