This paper develops new estimates of flows into and out of unemployment that allow for unobserved heterogeneity across … workers as well as direct effects of unemployment duration on unemployment-exit probabilities. Unlike any previous paper in … shocks to the short-run, medium-run, and long-run variance of unemployment as well as to specific historical episodes. We …

disaggregate unemployment and in the cross-sectional differences across individuals of the duration of unemployment spells. The …-space model of Ahn and Hamilton (2016). I found that the contribution of each factor to the dynamics of disaggregate unemployment …

This paper discusses various concepts of unemployment rate benchmarks that are frequently used by policymakers for … particular, we propose two broad categories of unemployment rate benchmarks: (1) a longer-run unemployment rate expected to … prevail after adjusting to business cycle shocks and (2) a stable-price unemployment rate tied to inflationary pressures. We …

unemployment. Using a standard model, we show that three factors can shift the Beveridge curve: reduced-form matching efficiency … shift in vacancies given unemployment. In previous recessions changes in matching efficiency were relatively unimportant … analyses estimating the natural rate of unemployment …