network model of the economy in which trade in intermediate goods is financed by supplier credit. In the model, a financial … shock to one firm affects its ability to make payments to its suppliers. The credit linkages between firms propagate …-industry credit flows from firm- and industry-level data. I then estimate aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks to industries in the US …

This paper discusses various concepts of unemployment rate benchmarks that are frequently used by policymakers for … particular, we propose two broad categories of unemployment rate benchmarks: (1) a longer-run unemployment rate expected to … prevail after adjusting to business cycle shocks and (2) a stable-price unemployment rate tied to inflationary pressures. We …

.S. experience reveals an elevated risk of large increases in unemployment when inflation or credit growth is high and when the … fluctuations in credit have contributed importantly to unemployment risk since the 1980s. Fluctuations in upside risk to …Fluctuations in upside risks to unemployment over the medium term are examined using quantile regressions. U …

higher wages. This increases firms' incentives to post more vacancies, which makes unemployment volatile and sensitive to … aggregate shocks. The model is robust to two major criticisms of existing theories of sluggish wages and volatile unemployment … explains 70% of unemployment volatility …

This paper develops new estimates of flows into and out of unemployment that allow for unobserved heterogeneity across … workers as well as direct effects of unemployment duration on unemployment-exit probabilities. Unlike any previous paper in … shocks to the short-run, medium-run, and long-run variance of unemployment as well as to specific historical episodes. We …

unemployment. Using a standard model, we show that three factors can shift the Beveridge curve: reduced-form matching efficiency … shift in vacancies given unemployment. In previous recessions changes in matching efficiency were relatively unimportant … analyses estimating the natural rate of unemployment …

Why do more educated workers experience lower unemployment rates and lower employment volatility? A closer look at the …-specific human capital reduce the outside option of workers, implying less incentives to separate. The model generates unemployment …

I examine whether the cyclical behavior of unemployment has changed over the post WWII period. Specifically, I test … whether cyclical movements in unemployment have become more persistent. Finding that they have, indeed, become more persistent … payroll employment as well as unemployment and that increased persistence appears to be widespread across industries. At the …

This paper presents a framework to interpret movements in the Beveridge curve and analyze unemployment fluctuations. We … decompose the unemployment rate into three main components: (1) a component driven by changes in labor demand – movements along … driven by changes in the efficiency of matching unemployed workers to jobs. We find that cyclical movements in unemployment …

Why do more educated workers experience lower unemployment rates and lower employment volatility? A closer look at the …-specific human capital reduce the outside option of workers, implying less incentives to separate. The model generates unemployment …