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Modeling the consumption response to the CARES Act
Carroll, Chris; Crawley, Edmund; Slacalek, Jirka; … - 2020
To predict the effects of the 2020 U.S. CARES act on consumption, we extend a model that matches responses of households to past consumption stimulus packages. The extension allows us to account for two novel features of the coronavirus crisis. First, during the lockdown, many types of spending...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012389446
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Supply-Side Effects of Pandemic Mortality : Insights from an Overlapping-Generations Model
Gagnon, Etienne; Johannsen, Benjamin K.; Lopez-Salido, David - 2020
We use an overlapping generation model to explore the implications of mortality during pandemics for the economy's productive capacity. Under current epidemiological projections for the progression of COVID-19, our model suggests that mortality will have, in itself, at most small effects on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014048776
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Cost of Borrowing Shocks and Fiscal Adjustment
de Groot, Oliver - 2013
Do capital markets impose fiscal discipline on governments? We investigate the responses of fiscal variables to a change in the interest rate paid by governments on their debt in a panel of 14 European countries over four decades. To this end, we estimate a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013073600
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Consumer Spending and Fiscal Consolidation : Evidence from a Housing Tax Experiment
Surico, Paolo - 2016
A major change of the property tax system in 2011 generated significant variation in the amount of housing taxes paid by Italian households. Using new questions added to the Survey on Household Income and Wealth (SHIW), we exploit this variation to provide an unprecedented analysis of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013000811
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Households' balance sheets and the effect of fiscal policy
Andrés, Javier; Boscá, José E.; Ferri, Javier; … - 2017
Using the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, we identify six household types as a function of their balance sheet composition. Since 1999, there has been a decline in the share of patient households and an increase in the share of impatient households with negative wealth. Using a DSGE model with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011927002
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The Household Expenditure Response to a Consumption Tax Rate Increase
Cashin, David B. - 2017
This study measures the effect of an increase in Japan's Value Added Tax rate on the timing of household expenditures and consumption, which do not necessarily coincide. The analysis finds that durable and storable expenditures surged in the month prior to the tax rate increase, fell sharply...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014121977
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Welfare and Spending Effects of Consumption Stimulus Policies
Carroll, Christopher D.; Crawley, Edmund; Tretvoll, Hakon - 2023
any desired size. A temporary (two-year) cut in the rate of wage taxation is considerably less effective than the other …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014355013
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Belief Dispersion Among Household Investors and Stock Trading Volume
Li, Geng - 2011
We study the effects of belief dispersion on stock trading volume. Unlike most of the existing work on the subject, our paper focuses on how household investors' disagreements on macroeconomic variables influence market-wide trading volume. We show that greater belief dispersion among household...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013118656
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Learning from Experience in the Stock Market
Nakov, Anton - 2012
update expectations by Bayesian learning based on observations from their own lifetimes. In this model, the stock price … exhibits stochastic fluctuations around the rational expectations equilibrium. This heterogeneous-agents economy can be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013096286
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Inflation Targeting Under Imperfect Knowledge
Orphanides, Athanasios - 2007
A central tenet of inflation targeting is that establishing and maintaining well-anchored inflation expectations are … public forms expectations and policymakers must formulate and implement monetary policy. Using an estimated model of the U ….S. economy, we show that monetary policy rules that would perform well under the assumption of rational expectations can perform …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012731667