The period of extraordinary volatility in euro area headline inflation starting in 2007 raised the question whether … from different models. The combination methods are evaluated for HICP headline inflation and HICP excluding food and energy … volatility in inflation. Overall, we find that, first, forecast combination helps hedge against bad forecast performance and …

examines the usefulness of these estimates for inflation forecasting. Over this period, we find that the Federal Reserve … estimation techniques. In contrast to previous work, we also find no deterioration in forecast performance when inflation …

Firmly-anchored inflation expectations are widely viewed as playing a central role in the successful conduct of … monetary policy. This paper presents estimates of trend inflation, based on information contained in survey expectations, the … term structure of interest rates, and realized inflation rates. My application combines a variety of data sources at the …

Survey based measures of inflation expectations are not informationally efficient yet carry important information about … future inflation. This paper explores the economic significance of informational inefficiencies of survey expectations. A … model selection algorithm is applied to the inflation expectations of households and professionals using a large panel of …

inflation are now less well informed by macroeconomic conditions; because expectations are important in the setting of current …-period prices, inflation is therefore less sensitive to macroeconomic conditions. To distinguish between our two hypotheses, we … bring to bear information on inflation expectations from surveys, which allow us to distinguish changes in the sensitivity …

inflation and deflationary biases in inflation expectations. In a model with an occasionally binding zero-lower-bound constraint …, we show that an inflation bias as well as a deflationary bias exist as a steady-state outcome. We assess the predictions … of this model using unique individual-level inflation expectations data across nine countries that allow for a direct …

This paper examines a number of alternative PCE price inflation measures including overall PCE inflation, PCE inflation … excluding food and energy, trimmed mean PCE inflation, component-smoothed inflation, variance-weighted inflation, inflation with … weights based on disaggregated regressions, and survey measures of inflation expectations. When averaging across a handful of …

Building on the results in Nalewaik (FEDS 2015-93), this work models wage growth and core PCE price inflation as regime … price inflation that becomes much larger after labor markets tighten beyond a certain point. The results are informative for … assessing the likelihood and risks of meeting certain inflation targets on a sustained basis …