that it provides early signals of upcoming recessions. In a real-time out-of-sample analysis of the last recession, we find … sector around mid-2007 and the implied chronology is consistent with the crisis timeline …

-volatility. We also find that the non-linear model performs remarkably well in tracking the Great Recession of 2007-2009 in real-time …

industrial production during the Great Recession. Furthermore, idiosyncratic financial shocks to a few key industries can explain … a considerable portion of these effects. In contrast, productivity shocks had a negligible impact during the recession …

in export volumes during the crisis. The recession also induced a missing generation of exporters, with large increases …The collapse of international trade surrounding the Great Recession has garnered significant attention. This paper … studies firm entry and exit in foreign markets and their role in the post-recession recovery of U.S. exports using …

We argue that Schularick and Taylor's (2012) comparison of credit growth and monetary growth as financial-crisis …

The recent financial crisis and the associated decline in economic activity have raised some important questions about … was used in real time by the staff of the Federal Reserve Board to monitor the crisis -- and shows how stress interacts …

bound was a significant constraint on monetary policy that exacerbated the recession and inhibited the recovery, as our mean …