Showing 1 - 10 of 149
To predict the effects of the 2020 U.S. CARES act on consumption, we extend a model that matches responses of households to past consumption stimulus packages. The extension allows us to account for two novel features of the coronavirus crisis. First, during the lockdown, many types of spending...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012389446
This paper sets out the theoretical foundations for continuous-time signal extraction in econometrics. Continuous-time modeling gives an effective strategy for treating stock and flow data, irregularly spaced data, and changing frequency of observation. We rigorously derive the optimal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014216524
Using a new consumer survey dataset, we document a new dimension of heterogeneity in inflation expectations that has … same inflation expectations differently assess whether the level of expected inflation and of nominal interest rates is … appropriate or too high/too low. The `hidden heterogeneity' in expectations stemming from these opinions is related to demographic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014048820
We study the effects of belief dispersion on stock trading volume. Unlike most of the existing work on the subject, our paper focuses on how household investors' disagreements on macroeconomic variables influence market-wide trading volume. We show that greater belief dispersion among household...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013118656
We study the role of homeownership in the effectiveness of monetary policy on households' expectations. Empirically, we … find that homeowners revise down their near-term inflation expectations and their optimism about future labor market … suggests that homeowners are attentive to news on interest rates and adjust their expectations accordingly in a manner …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014355012
Economic uncertainty is a powerful force in the modern economy. Research shows that surges in uncertainty can trigger business cycles, bank runs and asset price fluctuations. But where do sudden surges in uncertainty come from? This paper provides a data-disciplined theory of belief formation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014357057
A central tenet of inflation targeting is that establishing and maintaining well-anchored inflation expectations are … public forms expectations and policymakers must formulate and implement monetary policy. Using an estimated model of the U ….S. economy, we show that monetary policy rules that would perform well under the assumption of rational expectations can perform …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012731667
To better understand inflation expectations, we examine newly available data on U.S. households' inflation perceptions … expectations. The central tendencies of the responses for perceived inflation over the past five to ten years are similar to those … change tend to revise their expectations in the same direction; and perceptions and expectations vary similarly by gender and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012016383
inflation and deflationary biases in inflation expectations. In a model with an occasionally binding zero-lower-bound constraint … of this model using unique individual-level inflation expectations data across nine countries that allow for a direct … identification of these biases. Both inflation and deflationary biases are present (and sizable) in inflation expectations of these …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012181222
update expectations by Bayesian learning based on observations from their own lifetimes. In this model, the stock price … exhibits stochastic fluctuations around the rational expectations equilibrium. This heterogeneous-agents economy can be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013096286