The diminished sensitivity of inflation to changes in resource utilization that has been observed in many advanced … examine this "globalization" hypothesis using both aggregate U.S. data on measures of inflation and economic slack and a rich … the overall decline in responsiveness of aggregate inflation to fluctuations in economic activity. This flattening of the …

relationship between inflation and unemployment is nonlinear. Using aggregate data we are unable to reject a linear relationship … low compared to when it is high. Nevertheless the simple nonlinear Phillips curves used here suggest a core CPI inflation …

Building on the results in Nalewaik (FEDS 2015-93), this work models wage growth and core PCE price inflation as regime … price inflation that becomes much larger after labor markets tighten beyond a certain point. The results are informative for … assessing the likelihood and risks of meeting certain inflation targets on a sustained basis …

We produce business cycle chronologies for U.S. states and evaluate the factors that change the probability of moving … from one phase to another. We find strong evidence for positive duration dependence in all business cycle phases but find … of the cycle as well as the sign and size of the shock …

strengthen the countercyclical behavior of markups and attenuate the response of inflation to fluctuations in output …

that the oil price passes through core inflation only via its effect on the whole economy. This pass-through is estimated …

We consider what, if any, relationship there is between monetary aggregates and inflation, and whether there is any … paribus unitary relationship between inflation and money growth. Simulations of a New Keynesian model suggest that we should … allowance needed for the phase shift in the relationship between monetary growth rates and inflation. While financial innovation …

Since Kydland and Prescott (1977) and Barro and Gordon (1983), most studies of the problem of the inflation bias …-quadratic approach to the problem in favor of a projection method approach. We investigate the size of the inflation bias that arises in … a microfounded nonlinear environment with Calvo price setting. The inflation bias is found to lie between 1% and 6% for …

This paper studies the welfare consequences of exogenous variations in trend inflation in a New Keynesian economy …. Consumption and leisure respond asymmetrically to a rise and a decline in trend inflation. As a result, an increase in the … variance of shocks to the trend inflation process decreases welfare not only by increasing the volatilities of consumption and …