estimate "macro risk factors" that drive "bad" (negatively skewed) and "good" (positively skewed) variation for supply and … significantly contribute to the variation yields, risk premiums and return variances for nominal bonds. While overall bond risk … premiums are counter-cyclical, an increase in demand variance lowers risk premiums …

This paper studies the nature of business cycle variation in individual earnings risk using a dataset from the U … end of the shock distribution collapses -- large upward earnings movements become less likely -- whereas the bottom end … cyclical nature of earnings risk is dramatically different for the top 1 percent compared with all other individuals -- even …