Showing 1 - 10 of 219
We use non-Gaussian features in U.S. macroeconomic data to identify aggregate supply and demand shocks while imposing minimal economic assumptions. Recessions in the 1970s and 1980s were driven primarily by supply shocks, later recessions were driven primarily by demand shocks, and the Great...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011709342
it generates less than 10 percent of the observed business cycle fluctuations in unemployment given labor productivity … shocks of plausible magnitude. This paper argues that part of the problem lies with the identification of productivity shocks …. Because of the endogeneity of measured labor productivity, filtering out the trend component as in Shimer (2005) may not …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012718292
This paper presents accounting decompositions of changes in aggregate labor and capital productivity. Our simplest … decomposition breaks changes in an aggregate productivity ratio into two components: A mean component, which captures common changes … to firm factor productivity ratios, and a dispersion component, which captures changes in the variance and higher order …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210404
heterogeneous qualities in response to demand shocks alter the total factor productivity of the economy through a process of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014238148
We develop a dynamic decomposition of the empirical Beveridge curve, i.e., the level of vacancies conditional on unemployment. Using a standard model, we show that three factors can shift the Beveridge curve: reduced-form matching efficiency, changes in the job separation rate, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834050
Despite the recent patch of sluggish growth, the U.S. economy has experienced a period of remarkable stability since the mid-1980s. One popular explanation attributes the diminished variability of economic activity to information-technology-led improvements in inventory management. Our results,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014076151
This paper provides an extensive analysis of the predictive ability of financial volatility measures for economic activity. We construct monthly measures of aggregated and industry-level stock volatility, and bond market volatility from daily returns. We model log financial volatility as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013106992
future productivity help to explain the overall counter-cyclical behavior of the real rate.A sub-sample analysis documents …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128641
shock to one firm affects its ability to make payments to its suppliers. The credit linkages between firms propagate … a considerable portion of these effects. In contrast, productivity shocks had a negligible impact during the recession …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011932181
This paper provides an extensive analysis of the predictive ability of financial volatility measures for economic activity. We construct monthly measures of stock and bond market volatility from daily returns and model volatility as composed of a long-run component that is common across all...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013034769