The security of energy supply is a key geopolitical factor in the relationship between the European Union and the southern neighborhood countries of the Middle East and North Africa region. We study the response of eight Mediterranean economies to exogenous oil supply shocks. We focus on the...

This paper is the first to assess operational and probabilistic externalities of oil extraction and transportation to Europe on the basis of a comprehensive evaluation of realistic future oil demand-supply scenarios, of the relative relevance of import routes, of the local specificities in terms...

The role of unconventional resources (e.g., oil sands and extra-heavy oil) is anticipated to increase in the global oil market. Although we are facing a scarcity of conventional (low cost) oil resources, unconventional oil resources might manage (for a period of time) to supply constraints in...

In this work, we propose an analysis of the global market for crude oil based on a revised version of the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model introduced by Kilian and Murphy (2014). On this respect, we replace the global proxy for above-ground crude oil inventories with the oil...

This paper evaluates the predictability of WTI light sweet crude oil futures by using the variance risk premium, i.e. the difference between model-free measures of implied and realized volatilities. Additional regressors known for their ability to explain crude oil futures prices are also...

If the creditworthiness of a counterparty is a derivative of a commodity price, there is the potential to have right- or wrong-way exposures in commodity transaction. Identifying them is important, because otherwise credit costs are inadequately calculated. This is especially important if one...

Peak oil demand has become the hot new topic for oil market analysts but as always, runs the risk of being subject to superficial analysis, just as peak oil supply was. The primary arguments come from climate change activists who believe fossil fuel consumption must drop sharply and from...

The authors demonstrate that the United States profits handsomely in all circumstances by imposing an embargo on imports of foreign crude oil. The US removes its exposure to foreign oil supply shocks and recovers deadweight lost producers surplus. The embargo plan will lead to greater domestic...

The flame of oil is not eternal. The horizon carries all signs of peak oil. Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest crude oil producer and exporter risks becoming an oil importer probably by 2025 if current economic, demographic and security trends continue into the future. Saudi oil production...

The US energy strategy that would change the outlook worldwide is that for replacing crude oil with other liquids fuels to run automotive engines. Other strategies wander off into exotics requiring subsidies to produce heat or electricity not diesel, heating oil or gasoline. There is no...