The security of energy supply is a key geopolitical factor in the relationship between the European Union and the southern neighborhood countries of the Middle East and North Africa region. We study the response of eight Mediterranean economies to exogenous oil supply shocks. We focus on the...

This paper is the first to assess operational and probabilistic externalities of oil extraction and transportation to Europe on the basis of a comprehensive evaluation of realistic future oil demand-supply scenarios, of the relative relevance of import routes, of the local specificities in terms...

In this work, we propose an analysis of the global market for crude oil based on a revised version of the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model introduced by Kilian and Murphy (2014). On this respect, we replace the global proxy for above-ground crude oil inventories with the oil...

This paper is a follow up of the SECURE-project, financed by the European Commission to study “Security of Energy Considering its Uncertainties, Risks and Economic Implications”. It addresses the perspectives of, and the obstacles to a CCTS-roll out, as stipulated in some of the scenarios....

This article constitutes a new contribution to the analysis of overlapping instruments to cover the same emission sources. Using both an analytical and a numerical model, we show that when the risk that the CO2 price drops to zero and the political unavailability of a CO2 tax (at least in the...

Upon discussion of price setting on electricity wholesale markets, many refer to the so-called merit order model. Conventional wisdom holds that during most hours of the year, coal- or natural gas-fired power plants set the price on European markets. In this context, this paper analyses price...

The design of wholesale electricity markets in the transition towards liberalization presents significant differences from country to country. Some spot markets have imposed the concentration of transactions to ensure market liquidity. Other markets are based on bilateral trading. The debate...

To our knowledge, this paper is the first to discuss the response of European energy commodity prices to unexpected monetary policy surprises from the European Central Bank. Using the Rigobon (2003) identification through heteroscedasticity method, we find a significant and positive response...

We develop a Bayesian Structural VAR (SVAR) model to study the relationship between different kinds of energy shocks and inflation dynamics in Europe. Specifically, we include in our specification two separate energy markets (oil and natural gas) and two target macroeconomic variables, measuring...

This paper evaluates the predictability of WTI light sweet crude oil futures by using the variance risk premium, i.e. the difference between model-free measures of implied and realized volatilities. Additional regressors known for their ability to explain crude oil futures prices are also...