We offer a rational expectations model of the dynamics of innovative industries. The fundamental value of innovations is uncertain and one must learn whether they are solid or fragile. Also, when the industry is new, it is difficult to monitor managers and make sure they exert the effort...

We study innovative industries subject to two risks. First, it is uncertain whether the innovation is strong or fragile. Second, it is difficult to monitor managers, which creates moral hazard and agency rents. As time goes by and profits are observed, beliefs about the industry are updated. As...