The recent crisis underlined that proper estimation of distress-dependence amongst banks in a global system is essential for financial stability assessment. We present a set of banking stability measures embedding banks’ linear (correlation) and nonlinear distress-dependence, and their changes...

This paper presents the Conditional Probability of Default (CoPoD) methodology for modelling the probabilites of loan defaults (PoD) by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and unlisted firms as functions of identifiable macroeconomic and financial variables. The process of modelling PoDs...

The estimation of the profit and loss distribution of a loan portfolio requires the modelling of the portfolio's multivariate distribution. This describes the joint likelihood of changes in the credit-risk quality of the loans that make-up the portfolio. A significant problem for portfolio...

(The associated paper is significantly revised and new authors have contributed to it) We investigate on three exchange rate series the profitability of signals generated by the breaking of support and resistance identified and supplied by Chartists. Such profitability is assessed, and then...

 The purpose of this paper is to explore financial instability in this case due to a housing crisis and defaults on mortgages. The model incorporates heterogeneous banks and households. Mortgages are secured by collateral, which is equal to the amount of housing which agents purchase....

Until recently, financial services regulation remained largely segmented along national lines. The integration of financial markets, however, calls for a systematic and coherent approach to regulation. This paper studies the effect of market based regulation on the proper functioning of the...

No abstract is available.

This paper develops a simple model of an international lender of last resort (ILOLR). The World economy consists of many open economies, each with its own banking system and its own central bank which uses its reserves to manage a pegged exchange rate. The fragility of the banking system and the...

No Abstract Available.

We show, in an exchange economy with default, liquidity constraints and no aggregate uncertainty, that state prices in a complete markets general equilibrium are a function of the supply of liquidity by the Central Bank. Our model is derived along the lines of Dubey and Geanakoplos (1992)....