On 28-29 June 2007, the Financial Markets Group organised a conference covering topics under all three themes of its title, 'Cycles, Contagion and Crises', from the perspective of both developed and emerging economies.

Interest in TBTF resolutions of insolvent large complex firms has intensified in recent years, particularly in banking. TBTF resolutions protect some in-the-money counterparties of the targeted insolvent firm from losses that would be suffered if the usual bankruptcy resolution regimes used in...

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Credit growth is widely used as an indicator of potential financial stress, and it plays a role in the new Basel III framework. However, it is not clear how good an indicator it is in markets that have been financially liberalised. We take a sample of 14 OECD countries and 14 Latin American and...

Systemic risk is, by nature, unpredictable. Statistical models can fail to identify it. We need to maintain resource buffers as well as to implement better regulatory controls, and to improve managerial experience, and contingent strategies. International imbalances are nearly up to their...

The NYSE boom of the 1920s ended with the infamous crash of October 1929 and subsequent collapse in common stock prices from 1929-1932. Most approaches have suggested an overvaluation of 100%, usually dating from mid-1927 to September 1929.Excessive speculation based on high real earnings growth...

The Eurozone needs a bank resolution regime that can work across seventeen independent nations of diverse sizes with varying levels of financial development, limited fiscal coresponsibility, and with systemic instability induced by quick and low-cost deposit transfers across borders. We advocate...

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