In this paper we compare the predictive abilility of Stochastic Volatility (SV)models to that of volatility forecasts implied by option prices. We develop anSV model with implied volatility as an exogeneous var able in the varianceequation which facilitates the use of statistical tests for...

We study interaction between the trips of two types of drivers on a two-lane road who differ by their desired speeds. The difference in desired speeds causes congestion, because slow drivers force fast drivers to reduce their speed. An interesting aspect of this type of congestion is that...

In this paper we present an exact maximum likelihood treatment forthe estimation of a Stochastic Volatility in Mean(SVM) model based on Monte Carlo simulation methods. The SVM modelincorporates the unobserved volatility as anexplanatory variable in the mean equation. The same extension...

In this paper, we investigate congestion caused by differences in desired or possible speeds. Especially outside peak hours, speed differences are probably one of the most important reasons for congestion. Although the model setting, with one lane and no overtaking, may seem simple at first...

This paper proposes a new model-based method to obtain a coincident indicator for the business cycle. A dynamic factor model with trend components and a common cycle component is considered which can be estimated using standard maximum likelihood methods. The multivariate unobserved components...

This paper provides a link between car following theory and the economic theoryof road congestion by means of a theory of speed choice. According to this theory speedchoice is based on a trade-off between the benefits (shorter travel time) and cost (higheraccident risk) of driving faster....

Various economic theories are available to explain the existence of credit and default cycles. There remains empirical ambiguity, however, as to whether or these cycles coincide. Recent papers_new suggest by their empirical research set-up that they do, or at least that defaults and credit...

Conventional economic models of traffic congestion assume that therelation between road use and speed is a technical one. In this paper wederive the speed-flow relationship from more fundamental considerationsconcerning driving behaviour. We develop a structural model in which driverschoose...

This paper studies the interaction between job mobility and housing mobility by considering the duration of commutes. Conventional models assume that the employrnent location has priority over the residentiallocation and that the latter is adapted to the former. This implies that the duration of...

This paper explores the interrelations between pricing, capacity choice and financingin transportation networks. It builds on the famous Mohring-Harwitz result on self-financing ofoptimally designed roads under optimal congestion pricing, and specifically investigates itsins and outs in a...