In this paper we compare the predictive abilility of Stochastic Volatility (SV)models to that of volatility forecasts implied by option prices. We develop anSV model with implied volatility as an exogeneous var able in the varianceequation which facilitates the use of statistical tests for...

In this paper we present an exact maximum likelihood treatment forthe estimation of a Stochastic Volatility in Mean(SVM) model based on Monte Carlo simulation methods. The SVM modelincorporates the unobserved volatility as anexplanatory variable in the mean equation. The same extension...

In this paper, a dynamic model of road traffic congestion is presented, with an elastic overall demand for morning peak road usage, and with the congestion technology used being 'flow congestion'. It is demonstrated that in such a case, the optimal time-varying toll should include a 'flat',...

In this paper, we investigate congestion caused by differences in desired or possible speeds. Especially outside peak hours, speed differences are probably one of the most important reasons for congestion. Although the model setting, with one lane and no overtaking, may seem simple at first...

This paper studies some of the properties and fundamentals of static models of road traffic congestion that have triggered much debate in the literature. The first part of the paper focuses in particular on the difficulties arising with the backward-bending cost curve in the context of...

This paper analyses the adoption of energy-efficiency enhancing technologies by heterogeneous firms. The fact that energy use does not only cause external environmental costs through pollution, but also directly affects the profitability of the firm and hence its behaviour on input and output...

Conventional economic wisdom suggests that congestion pricing would be an appropriate response to cope with the growing congestion levels currently experienced at many airports. Several characteristics of aviation markets, however, may make naive congestion prices equal to the value of marginal...

This paper proposes a new model-based method to obtain a coincident indicator for the business cycle. A dynamic factor model with trend components and a common cycle component is considered which can be estimated using standard maximum likelihood methods. The multivariate unobserved components...

Various economic theories are available to explain the existence of credit and default cycles. There remains empirical ambiguity, however, as to whether or these cycles coincide. Recent papers_new suggest by their empirical research set-up that they do, or at least that defaults and credit...

This paper aims to analyze and depict urban equilibrium from the perspective of acomplex force field between (positive) agglomeration economies and (negative) environmentalexternalities. Based on a simplified representation of a linear urban economy, anarchetypical model based on general...