This paper compares alternative models of time-varying macroeconomic volatility on the basis of the accuracy of point and density forecasts of macroeconomic variables. In this analysis, we consider both Bayesian autoregressive and Bayesian vector autoregressive models that incorporate some form...

The computational revolution in simulation techniques has shown to become a key ingredient in the field of Bayesian econometrics and opened new possibilities to study complex economic and financial phenomena. Applications include risk measurement, forecasting, assessment of policy effectiveness...