representing the short-term real interest rate, expected inflation, inflation's central tendency, and four volatility factors that … follow GARCH processes. We derive analytical solutions for nominal bond yields, yields on inflation-indexed bonds that have … an indexation lag, and the term structure of expected inflation. Unlike prior studies, the model's parameters are …

are often used for monetary policy. Until now, the use of trimmed-mean price statistics in forecasting inflation has often … the inflation forecasting improvements are perhaps not surprising given the current literature on core inflation …

We estimate an empirical model of inflation that exploits a Phillips curve relationship between a measure of … unemployment and a subaggregate measure of inflation (services). We generate an aggregate inflation forecast from forecasts of the … statistics for models that exploit relationships between services inflation and the unemployment rate. In addition, models of …

might be useful in the forecasting of aggregate inflation. Trimmed-mean inflation estimators have been shown to be useful … devices for forecasting headline PCE inflation. But does this stem from their ability to signal the underlying trend, or does … question by augmenting a “hard to beat” benchmark inflation forecasting model of headline PCE price inflation with robust …

We develop a flexible modeling framework to produce density nowcasts for US inflation at a trading-day frequency. Our …

The dollar's depreciation during the early floating rate period, 1973-1981, was a symptom of the Great Inflation. In …

Reserve's ability to credibly commit to low and stable inflation. This chapter also provides a theoretical discussion of …