are often used for monetary policy. Until now, the use of trimmed-mean price statistics in forecasting inflation has often … the inflation forecasting improvements are perhaps not surprising given the current literature on core inflation …

We estimate an empirical model of inflation that exploits a Phillips curve relationship between a measure of … unemployment and a subaggregate measure of inflation (services). We generate an aggregate inflation forecast from forecasts of the … statistics for models that exploit relationships between services inflation and the unemployment rate. In addition, models of …

might be useful in the forecasting of aggregate inflation. Trimmed-mean inflation estimators have been shown to be useful … devices for forecasting headline PCE inflation. But does this stem from their ability to signal the underlying trend, or does … question by augmenting a “hard to beat” benchmark inflation forecasting model of headline PCE price inflation with robust …

We develop a flexible modeling framework to produce density nowcasts for US inflation at a trading-day frequency. Our …