The relationship between inflation and predictors such as unemployment is potentially nonlinear with a strength that … develop a model for inflation forecasting that is nonparametric both in the conditional mean and in the error using Gaussian … of inflation. In a forecasting exercise involving CPI inflation, we find that our approach has substantial benefits, both …

We develop a flexible modeling framework to produce density nowcasts for US inflation at a trading-day frequency. Our …

than rules that also include current or future inflation …

This paper studies the effects of anticipated inflation on aggregate output and welfare within a search …-theoretic framework. We allow money-holders to choose the intensities with which they search for trading partners, so inflation affects …, the equilibrium is generically inefficient and an increase in inflation reduces buyers' search intensities, output, and …

This paper investigates the welfare effects of inflation in economies with search frictions and menu costs. We first … condition under which price stability is optimal and a condition under which positive inflation is desirable. We relate these … inflation rate is negative for all our numerical examples. A deviation from the Friedman rule can be optimal depending on the …

might be useful in the forecasting of aggregate inflation. Trimmed-mean inflation estimators have been shown to be useful … devices for forecasting headline PCE inflation. But does this stem from their ability to signal the underlying trend, or does … question by augmenting a “hard to beat” benchmark inflation forecasting model of headline PCE price inflation with robust …

Using a novel experimental setup, we study the direction of causality between consumers’ inflation expectations and … passthrough from expected inflation to expected income growth is incomplete, on the order of 20 percent. There is no statistically …. Higher inflation expectations also cause consumers to report a higher probability that they will search for a new job that …

We study how the co-movement of inflation and economic activity affects real interest rates and the likelihood of debt … crises. First, we show that for advanced economies, periods with procyclical inflation are associated with lower real … interest rates. Procyclical inflation implies that nominal bonds pay out more in bad times, making them a good hedge against …

This paper reinvestigates the performance of trimmed-mean inflation measures some 20 years since their inception … inflation …

are often used for monetary policy. Until now, the use of trimmed-mean price statistics in forecasting inflation has often … the inflation forecasting improvements are perhaps not surprising given the current literature on core inflation …