Showing 1 - 10 of 12
Several recent studies have expressed concern that the Haar prior typically imposed in estimating sign-identified VAR … that there is no evidence that typical sign-identified VAR models estimated using conventional priors tend to imply … estimating sign-identified VAR models proposed by Baumeister and Hamilton (2015) suffers from exactly the same conceptual …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014090346
Predictions of oil prices reaching $100 per barrel during the winter of 2021/22 have raised fears of persistently high inflation and rising inflation expectations for years to come. We show that these concerns have been overstated. A $100 oil scenario of the type discussed by many observers,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013312158
The conventional wisdom that inflation expectations respond to the level of the price of oil (or the price of gasoline) is based on testing the null hypothesis of a zero slope coefficient in a static single-equation regression model fit to aggregate data. Given that the regressor in this model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014094427
monthly shock that may be used as an external instrument in a monthly VAR model or local projection. The standard approach has … announcements to identify news shocks in VAR models of the global oil market. The proposed approach calls into question the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014352751
Consumers purchase energy in many forms. Sometimes energy goods are consumed directly, for instance, in the form of gasoline used to operate a vehicle, electricity to light a home or natural gas to heat a home. At other times, the cost of energy is embodied in the prices of goods and services...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014264326
Many empirical studies estimate impulse response functions that depend on the state of the economy. Most of these studies rely on a variant of the local projection (LP) approach to estimate the state-dependent impulse response functions. Despite its widespread application, the asymptotic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013289442
Structural VAR models are routinely estimated by Bayesian methods. Several recent studies have voiced concerns about … the common use of posterior median (or mean) response functions in applied VAR analysis. In this paper, we show that these … same loss function. Our analysis covers a much wider range of structural VAR models than previous proposals in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014048816
We study the construction of nonlinear impulse responses in structural dynamic models that include nonlinearly transformed regressors. Such models have played an important role in recent years in capturing asymmetries, thresholds and other nonlinearities in the responses of macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014048832
approach to estimating sign-identified structural VAR models that seeks to build a bridge between Bayesian and frequentist … narrative restrictions in sign-identified structural VAR models. My discussion puts their contribution into the context of … Giacomini and Kitagawa’s broader research agenda and relates it to the larger literature on estimating structural VAR models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013310356
Do state-dependent local projections asymptotically recover the population responses of macroeconomic aggregates to structural shocks? The answer to this question depends on how the state of the economy is determined and on the magnitude of the shocks. When the state is exogenous, the local...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014355000