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Changes in fiscal policy typically entail two kinds of lags: the legislative lag--between when legislation is proposed and when it is signed into law--and the implementation lag--from when a new fiscal law is enacted and when it takes effect. These lags imply that substantial time evolves...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462293
In this lecture, I argue that there are remarkable parallels between how monetary and fiscal policies operate on the macro economy and that these parallels are sufficient to lead us to think about transforming fiscal policy and fiscal institutions as many countries have transformed monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463382
This paper presents new tests of the permanent income hypothesis and other widely used models of household behavior using data from the labor market. We estimate the "excess sensitivity" of job search behavior to cash-on-hand using sharp discontinuities in eligibility for severance pay and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466022
The paper generalizes the Taylor principle---the proposition that central banks can stabilize the macroeconomy by raising their interest rate instrument more than one-for-one in response to higher inflation---to an environment in which reaction coefficients in the monetary policy rule evolve...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466797
in 2017, there was no commensurate shrinkage of these claims on liquidity. Consequently, the financial sector was left … more sensitive to potential liquidity shocks, with weaker-capitalized banks most exposed. This necessitated Fed liquidity … provision in September 2019 and again in March 2020. Liquidity-risk-exposed banks suffered the most drawdowns and the largest …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247971
An earlier paper by the author investigated the quantitative implications, for the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies, of a model treating the determination of long-term interest rates by explicitly imposing the market clearing equilibrium condition that the quantity of bonds issued...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478225
The object of this paper is to bring to bear on financial-non financial interactions a richer approach to modeling the determination of long-term interest rates. in a series of previous papers. I have developed an alternative model based explicitly on the truism that any factor affecting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478782
The textbook optimal policy response to an increase in government debt is simple--monetary policy should actively target inflation, and fiscal policy should smooth taxes while ensuring debt sustainability. Such policy prescriptions presuppose an ability to commit. Without that ability, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479609
We estimate a model in which fiscal and monetary policy behavior arise from the optimizing behavior of distinct policy authorities, with potentially different welfare functions. Optimal time-consistent policy behavior fits U.S. time series at least as well as rules-based behavior. American...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481395
Monetary policy decisions tend to be based on systematic analysis of alternative policy choices and their associated macroeconomic impacts: this is science. Fiscal policy choices, in contrast, spring from unsystematic speculation, grounded more in politics than economics: this is alchemy. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462148