We study the impact of interest rates changes on both the demand for and supply of new light vehicles in an environment where consumers and manufacturers face their own interest rates. An increase in the consumers' interest rate raises their cost of financing and thus lowers the demand for new...

This paper studies the sensitivity of investment in apartment building maintenance to building debt levels. I use a novel data set combining housing code violations from forty-five U.S. cities with apartment financing information to show that highly leveraged buildings tend to be less well...

We present estimates of the term structure of inflation expectations, derived from an affine model of real and nominal yield curves. The model features stochastic covariation of inflation with the real pricing kernel, enabling us to extract a time-varying inflation risk premium. We fit the model...

We show that equity markets are typically two-sided and that trades cluster in certain trading intervals for both NYSE and Nasdaq stocks under a broad range of conditions - news and non-news days, different times of the day, and a spectrum of trade sizes. By quot;two-sidedquot; we mean that the...

This paper examines the evolution of risk in the U.S. financial sector using firm-level equity market data from 1975 to 2005. We find that over the past three decades, financial sector volatility has steadily increased, particularly from 1998 to 2002. Increased volatility, driven by common...

We show how to price the time series and cross-section of the term structure of interest rates using a three-step linear regression approach. Our method allows computationally fast estimation of term structure models with a large number of pricing factors. We present specification tests favoring...

We propose a measure for systemic risk: CoVaR, the value at risk (VaR) of the financial system conditional on institutions being in distress. We define an institution's contribution to systemic risk as the difference between CoVaR conditional on the institution being in distress and CoVaR in the...

We decompose the time series of equity market risk into short- and long-run volatility components. Both components have negative and highly significant prices of risk in the cross section of equity returns. A three-factor model with the market return and the two volatility components compares...

This paper examines the mechanism by which the incorporation of information into prices leads to cross-autocorrelations in stock returns. We present a simple model where trading on private information occurs first in the large stocks and is transmitted to small stocks with a lag. Such trading...

Does the presence of arbitrageurs decrease equilibrium asset price volatility? I study an economy with arbitrageurs, informed investors, and noise traders. Arbitrageurs face a trade-off between arbitrage and inference: they would like to buy assets in response to temporary price declines (the...