Although the effects of economic news announcements on asset prices are well established, these relationships are unlikely to be stable. This paper documents the time variation in the responses of yield curves and exchange rates using high-frequency data from January 2000 through August 2011....

Theories of systemic risk suggest that financial intermediaries' balance-sheet constraints amplify fundamental shocks. We provide supporting evidence for such theories by decomposing the U.S. dollar risk premium into components associated with macroeconomic fundamentals and a component...

Risk reversals are a combination of options from which price information about market expectations of future exchange rates can be extracted. This paper describes a procedure for estimating the market's perceived probability distribution of future exchange rates from the prices of risk reversals...

This paper describes a method of extracting the risk-neutral probability distribution of future exchange rates from option prices. In foreign exchange markets interbank option pricing conventions make possible reliable inferences about risk-neutral probability distributions with relatively...

Self-fulfilling expectations are commonly believed to play an important role in the transmission of currency crises across countries. However, existing models that use multiple equilibria to illustrate the importance of such expectations have many undesirable features. This paper presents a new...

I exploit a natural experiment in South Korea to examine the real effects of macroprudential foreign exchange (FX) regulations designed to reduce risk-taking by financial intermediaries. By using crossbank variation in the regulation's tightness, I show that it causes a reduction in the supply...

This paper evaluates rigorously the predictive power of the head-and-shoulders pattern as applied to daily exchange rates. Though such visual, nonlinear chart patterns are applied frequently by technical analysts, our paper is one of the first to evaluate the predictive power of such patterns....

The trend in the world real interest rate for safe and liquid assets fluctuated close to 2 percent for more than a century, but has dropped significantly over the past three decades. This decline has been common among advanced economies, as trends in real interest rates across countries have...

We present evidence that the funding liquidity aggregates of U.S. financial intermediaries forecast U.S. dollar exchange rate growth—at weekly, monthly, and quarterly horizons, both in-sample and out-of-sample, and against a large set of foreign currencies. We provide a theoretical foundation...

We investigate the economically and statistically significant positive correlation between monthly foreign purchases of Mexican stocks and Mexican stock returns. We find that a 1 percent of market capitalization surprise foreign inflow is associated with a 13 percent increase in Mexican stock...