Methods of monetary policy implementation continue to change. The level of reserve supply—scarce, abundant, or somewhere in between—has implications for the efficiency and effectiveness of an implementation regime. The money market events of September 2019 highlight the need for an...

The quantity of reserves in the U.S. banking system has risen dramatically since September 2008. Some commentators have expressed concern that this pattern indicates that the Federal Reserve's liquidity facilities have been ineffective in promoting the flow of credit to firms and households....

We would like to propose a new framework for monetary policy analysis that encompasses, as a special case, the Neo-Wicksellian paradigm. A general form of an aggregate-demand equation reveals a role for liquidity, as well as less effective movements in future real rates with respect to current...

This paper investigates the consequences of debt stabilization for inflation targeting. If the monetary authority perfectly stabilizes inflation while the fiscal authority holds constant the real value of debt at maturity, the equilibrium dynamics might be indeterminate. However, determinacy can...

This paper estimates a small open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, specified along the lines of Galí and Monacelli (2005) and Lubik and Schorfheide (2007), using Chilean data for the full inflation-targeting period of 1999 to 2007. We study the specification of the...

This paper compares the properties of interest rate rules such as simple Taylor rules and rules that respond to price-level fluctuations — called Wicksellian rules — in a basic forward-looking model. By introducing appropriate history dependence in policy, Wicksellian rules perform better...

This paper outlines a simple Bayesian methodology for estimating tax and spending multipliers in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. After forming priors about the parameters of the model and the relevant shock, we used the model to exactly match only one data point: the...

This paper revisits the accuracy of inflation forecasting using activity and expectations variables. We apply Bayesian model averaging across different regression specifications selected from a set of potential predictors that includes lagged values of inflation, a host of real activity data,...

We compare a number of data-rich prediction methods that are widely used in macroeconomic forecasting with a lesser known alternative: partial least squares (PLS) regression. In this method, linear, orthogonal combinations of a large number of predictor variables are constructed such that the...

We provide a model that can explain empirically relevant variations in confidence and risk taking by combining horizon-dependent risk aversion (“anxiety”) and selective memory in a Bayesian intrapersonal game. In the time series, overconfidence is more prevalent when actual risk levels are...