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This Economic Letter examines recent evidence concerning the connection between unemployment and inflation. We argue … that, in a deep economic downturn such as the current one, inflation and unemployment do tend to move together in a manner … consistent with the Phillips curve. But, outside of such severe recessions, fluctuations in the inflation and unemployment rates …
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A much debated question among economists is the usefulness of the Phillips curve as a tool for forecasting inflation. This Economic Letter presents some quantitative comparisons between a Phillips curve-based inflation forecast and an alternative forecast that is constructed as a weighted moving...
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This Economic Letter looks at the problems with the NKPC and discusses some alternatives that are increasingly being used to think about inflation and the monetary policy transmission mechanism.
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