In this paper we summarize the results of a broad exploratory empirical analysis where we relate the level of financial development with the effectiveness of monetary policy. The analysis is based on a panel of countries for whom we calculate measures both of financial development and of...

In this paper we build a model of a dollarized economy with imperfect financial markets to analyze and qualify the common view that countries with higher dollarization exhibit higher pass-through. We show that the classic inflationary effects of a real depreciation -higher internal demand and...

In this paper we analyze the behavior of stock markets in six emerging countries. More specifically, we describe the bull and bear cycles of four Latin American and two Asian countries, comparing their characteristics during both phases and the degree of concordance of bullish periods. We divide...

In this paper we examine the power of the interest rate spread and of other financial variables as predictors of economic recessions in Spain. The domestic term spread is found to have little information about future real activity. However, term spreads in big economies to which Spain is...

In this paper we test whether the dynamic behavior of stock market volatility in six emerging economies has changed over the period 1976:01-2004:12. This period corresponds to years of profound development of both the financial and the productive sides in these emerging countries, but also to...

In this paper we analyze the business cycles of 15 European countries and the US. We locate the expansionary and recessionary periods by dating the turning points of an industrial production index using the Bry-Boschan procedure. We find that there is high concordance in the business cycles of...

We present and estimate a model of short term interest rate dynamics where we incorporate the convergent behavior of interest rates implied by the transition to EMU. We apply this model to data of two EMU countries -Spain and Italy- and compare the performance, in terms of accuracy of bond...

This article explores the behavior of exchange rates in Spain during the XVIII century. We posit that exchange rates were the result of both government intervention over nominal values of currencies and the estimate that the market –of bills of exchange- gave to the value of the currency. We...

In this paper we use Spanish stock market data to identify the bull and bear phases of the market and to analyze its characteristics during the period 1941-2002. We compare these characteristics with those of the US and of two other European countries (Germany and the UK). Our sample is divided...

In this paper we review the factors that may lead to structural changes in stock market volatility and present an analysis that assesses whether Spanish stock market volatility has changed significantly over the period 1941-2001. This period corresponds to the years of more profound development...