During the past few years, there has been increasing criticism of the forecast performance of the small reduced-form model of the economy. During the same period, several unusual economic developments led to the formulation of new hypotheses and questions concerning the reliability of old ones....

This paper provides a critique on “The Effects on Output of Money Growth and Interest Rate Volatility in the United States” by Paul Evans and offers alternative measures of interest rate variability as well as for money growth variability. These alternative measures were then used to conduct...

In this paper, we examine whether energy prices are cyclical and begin by looking at why the price of any good would be cyclical. With few explainable and largely insignificant exceptions, we find that energy prices are not responsive to the U.S. business cycle. We find that crude oil and...

The purpose of this paper is to outline the effects of energy price shocks in a small reduced-form model of the economy. I prepare the model and also discuss two complementary modeling approaches that were developed to test the theory