Through explicitly incorporating analysts' forecasts as observable factors in a dynamic arbitrage- free model of the yield curve, this paper proposes a framework for studying the impact of shifts in market sentiment on interest rates of all maturities. An empirical examination reveals that...

Riding the yield curve, the fixed-income strategy of purchasing a longer-dated security and selling before maturity, has long been a popular means to achieve excess returns compared to buying-and-holding, despite its implicit violations of market efficiency and the pure expectations hypothesis...

Dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) price interest rate derivatives based on the model­ implied fair values of the yield curve, ignoring any pricing residuals on the yield curve that are either from model approximations or market imperfections. In contrast, option pricing in practice often...

We derive discrete markov chain approximations for continuous state equilibrium term structure models. The states and transition probabilities of the markov chain are chosen effciently according to a quadrature rule as in Tauchen and Hussey (1991). Quadrature provides a simple yet method which...

We present a dynamic term structure model in which interest rates of all maturities are bounded from below at zero. Positivity and continuity, combined with no arbitrage, result in only one functional form for the term structure with three sources of risk. One dynamic factor controls the level...

This paper considers a class of Heath-Jarrow-Morton (1992) term structure models, characterized by time deterministic volatilities for the instantaneous forward rate. The bias that arises from using observed futures yields as a proxy for the unobserved instantaneous forward rate is analyzed. The...

We consider the design and estimation of quadratic term structure models. We start with a list of stylized facts on interest rates and interest rate derivatives, classified into three layers: (1) general statistical properties, (2) forecasting relations, and (3) conditional dynamics. We then...

A careful examination of interest rate time series from different U.S. Treasury maturities by Wavelet Multiresolution Analysis (MRA) suggests that the first differences of the term structure of interest rate series are periodic or, at least, cyclic, non-stationary, long-term dependent, in...

The influence of heterogeneous time preferences on the term structure is investigated. Motivated by the Preferred Habitat Theory of Modigliani and Sutch, a model for intertemporal preferences accounting for preferred habitats is proposed. In a heterogeneous world, preferred habitats can explain...

This paper presents econometric analyses on the determination of bank deposit and lending rates using longitudinal Finnish data. Interest rate pass-through is very strong, possibly complete, in the case of lending rates; in the case of deposit rates the pass-through is far from complete, even in...