A pure exchange economy with a financial market is studied where aggregate dividends are modeled as a diffusion. The dynamics of the diffusion are allowed to depend on factors which are unobservable to the agents and have to be estimated. With perfect information, the asset market would be...

This paper introduces a new method for evaluating a trading system based on its past performance. The method is a hypothesis test that asks whether the system is making random trades. The test controls for price behavior during the test period and the trade characteristics of the system being...

An exact integral representation is derived for the American option price. It is not easily solvable, but it leads to an efficient approximation scheme. The results obtained are very satisfactory and comparable to those available from other methods. In this method, critical stock prices can be...

The popular press attaches particular significance to certain numerical values of the Dow-Jones index. These magic numbers are referred to as `resistance levels' or `psychological barriers.' We examine 38 years of closing values of this index to see if it is of any help in predicting future...

This paper extends the field of index number theory to the case of risk, by deriving the Divisia index from the Euler equations under risk, rather than from the first order conditions under perfect certainty, as was done by Francois Divisia. The result is an extended Divisia index which corrects...

Virtually all existing continuous-time, single-factor term structure models are based on a short rate process that has a linear drift function. However, there is no strong a priori argument in favor of linearity, and Stanton (1997) and Ait-Sahalia (1996) employ nonparametric estimation...

This paper examines the impact of the Internet on financial markets

This paper proposes a simple and unifying model to price the interest rate contingent claims in a complete market where trading can be made in continuous time. The underlying dynamics of the yield curve is modelled by a random string whose trajectory produces a random surface described by a...

Nearly any standard financial model concludes that two assets with identical cash flows must sell for the same price. Alas, closed-end mutual fund company share prices seem to violate this fundamental tenant. Even when one considers several standard frictions, such as taxes and agency costs,...

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether current economic activities in Turkey have explanatory power over stock returns, or not. The data used in this study are monthly stock price indexes of Istanbul Stock Exchange and a set of macroeconomic variables, including money supply,...