We integrate a case-based model of probability judgment with prospect theory to explore asset pricing under uncertainty. Research within the "heuristics and biases" tradition suggests that probability judgments respond primarily to case-specific evidence and disregard aggregate characteristics...

This Note considers the problem of aggregating individual probability estimates of an event to obtain a group estimate. Norman Dalkey has argued that no rigorous theory of probability aggregation is possible for the following reasons: (1) There is no consistent way of aggregating individual...

There are many situations where one is interested in predicting the expected number of events in period 2 given that x events occurred in period 1. For example, insurance companies must decide whether or not to cancel the insurance of drivers who had 3 or more accidents during the previous year....

The expected return to equity--typically measured as a historical average--is a key variable in the decision making of investors. A recent literature based on analysts forecasts and practitioner surveys finds estimates of expected returns that are sometimes much lower than historical averages....

This paper examines the effect of inflation on stock valuations and expected long-run returns. Ex ante estimates of expected long-run returns are constructed by incorporating analysts' earnings forecasts into a variant of the Campbell-Shiller dividend-price ratio model. The negative relation...