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Product innovation and the business cycle
Jovanovic, Boyan; Lach, Saul - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1995
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005721084
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The importance of reallocations in cyclical productivity and returns to scale: evidence from plant-level data
Lee, Yoonsoo - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland - 2005
Procyclical productivity plays an important role in many models of aggregate fluctuations. However, recent studies … procyclicality of productivity observed in aggregate data may be understated. Using plant-level microdata, this paper finds that the … component in aggregate productivity. This paper shows that such composition changes may cause a downward bias in industry …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005428281
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Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle
Lopez-Salido, J. David; Stein, Jeremy C.; Zakrajsek, Egon - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2015
Using U.S. data from 1929 to 2013, we show that elevated credit-market sentiment in year t-2 is associated with a decline in economic activity in years t through t+2. Underlying this result is the existence of predictable mean reversion in credit-market conditions. That is, when our sentiment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011273704
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The unreliability of credit-to-GDP ratio gaps in real-time: Implications for countercyclical capital buffers
Edge, Rochelle M.; Meisenzahl, Ralf R. - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2011
Macroeconomists have long recognized that activity-gap measures are unreliable in real time and that this can present serious difficulties for stabilization policy. This paper investigates whether the credit-to-GDP ratio gap, which has been proposed as a reference point for accumulating...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009292960
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Credit crises, money, and contractions: A historical view
Bordo, Michael D.; Haubrich, Joseph G. - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland - 2009
The relatively infrequent nature of major credit distress events makes a historical approach particularly useful. Using a combination of historical narrative and econometric techniques, we identify major periods of credit distress from 1875 to 2007, examine the extent to which credit distress...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008636220
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Endogenous business cycles and the dynamics of output, hours, and consumption
Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1998
This paper studies the business-cycle fluctuations predicted by a two-sector endogenous-business-cycle model with sector-specific external increasing returns to scale. It focuses on aspects of actual fluctuations that have been identified both as defining features of the business cycle and as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005721004
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Monetary policy, business cycles and the behavior of small manufacturing firms
Gertler, Mark; Gilchrist, Simon - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1993
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005721009
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Ex ante turning point forecasting with the composite leading index
Diebold, Francis X.; Rudebusch, Glenn D. - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1988
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005721081
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The cyclical behavior of short term business lending: implications for financial propagation mechanisms
Gertler, Mark; Gilchrist, Simon - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1993
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005721094
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Monetary policy and the information content of the yield spread
Feroli, Michael - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2004
This paper demonstrates that the ability of the yield spread to predict output fluctuations is contingent on the monetary authority's reaction function. In particular, expectations of monetary policy actions are crucial for the spread to predict output conditional on the short-rate. Furthermore,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005721147