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Recently, U.S. households have committed a rising share of disposable personal income to required principal and interest payments on household debt. Studies of the direct link between the household debt service ratio (DSR) and consumption show mixed results—perhaps because debt may instead...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005393742
If current projections of future budget surpluses materialize, investing in Treasury securities--an asset class with which investors have long been familiar--could eventually become a thing of the past. In this paper, I examine the extent to which investors' portfolio allocation decisions are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005393890
Estimating the effects of government debt and deficits on Treasury yields is complicated by the need to isolate the effects of fiscal policy from other influences. To abstract from the effects of the business cycle, and associated monetary policy actions, on debt, deficits, and interest rates,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005721120
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005721237
We consider what, if any, relationship there is between monetary aggregates and inflation, and whether there is any substantial reason for modifying the current mainstream mode of policy analysis, which frequently does not consider monetary aggregates at all. We begin by considering the body of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008764380
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005513107
Contrary to simple theoretical predictions, previous empirical research has found that state government public spending … preferences for public goods and intergovernmental grant receipts, and this correlation has likely biased the existing literature … demonstrate that constituent private income and grants have similar effects on public spending. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005513073
This paper surveys the literature on the macroeconomic effects of government debt. It begins by discussing the data on debt and deficits, including the historical time series, measurement issues, and projections of future fiscal policy. The paper then presents the conventional theory of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005514169
This paper employs Roback's locational-equilibrium model of public-goods pricing, cross-sectional data from the Census … of Population and Housing, and SMSA-level estimates of public capital stocks in order to examine the productive … contribution of public capital. I find that public capital has a small positive impact on private output. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005393921
This paper uses news reports about two deficit-reduction laws of the past decade to identify days when expected fiscal policy clearly became more or less expansionary. The paper also proposes a technique for identifying whether the real interest rate increased or decreased on those days, based...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005394046