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useful in forecasting recessions. Specifically, output tends to transition to a slow-growth phase at the end of expansions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009024046
(GDI), deflated by the GDP deflator, has done a better job recognizing the start of recessions than has the growth rate of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005393934
dominates simple averaging of model forecasts in predicting recessions. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005394156
This paper quantifies the welfare implications of the U.S. Social Security program during the Great Recession. We find that the average welfare losses due to the Great Recession for agents alive at the time of the shock are notably smaller in an economy with Social Security relative to an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010784157