I estimate the welfare provided by and net costs of the Medicare HMO program in 1999-2002. I measure welfare with a … nested logit model of demand for Medicare HMO plans using detailed data on plan benefits. From this, I derive estimates of … also use data on favorable selection enjoyed by Medicare HMOs to estimate net costs, which total about $21 billion (2000 …

This paper examines the generational aspect of the current Medicare system and some stylized reforms. We find that the … rates of return on Medicare for today's workers are higher than those for Social Security and that the Medicare system is … shifting a greater share of the burden on future workers than is Social Security. Nonetheless, the rates of return on Medicare …

There is a great deal of geographic variation in Medicare spending. For example, while the average Medicare cost per … beneficiary was around $5200 in 1996, Medicare spending, adjusted for differences in regional prices and demographic composition …. This finding suggests that some of the geographic variation in Medicare spending is efficient. But even accounting for …

existence of pay-as-you-go transfer programs like Social Security and Medicare. We find that, if the United States were a small …

I estimate the welfare, both gross and net, provided by the Medicare managed care program in 1999 through 2002. First …, I estimate a model of demand for the benefits offered by managed care plans to Medicare beneficiaries. I then use the … demand estimates to form estimates of welfare provided by the program. Medicare beneficiaries derived $14.9 billion of gross …