addition a conventional US monetary easing leads to a significant narrowing of the credit spreads on dollar …-denominated sovereign bonds that are issued by countries with a speculative-grade sovereign credit rating. However, during the …

We explore empirically how the time-varying allocation of credit across firms with heterogeneous credit quality matters … credit allocation, captured by Greenwood and Hanson (2013)'s ISS indicator, helps predict downside risks to GDP growth and … systemic banking crises, two to three years ahead. Our analysis indicates that the riskiness of credit allocation is both a …

-specific time-varying measure of credit supply. The contraction in credit supply explains one fourth of the reduction in employment …