that the oil price passes through core inflation only via its effect on the whole economy. This pass-through is estimated …

We use several US and euro-area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation … featuring time-varying uncertainty. We obtain survey-consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the US … and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we propose a novel measure of the anchoring of inflation expectations that …

The period of extraordinary volatility in euro area headline inflation starting in 2007 raised the question whether … from different models. The combination methods are evaluated for HICP headline inflation and HICP excluding food and energy … volatility in inflation. Overall, we find that, first, forecast combination helps hedge against bad forecast performance and …

patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the 'normal regime', oil price … shocks are followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity moving in the … same direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a …