We use several US and euro-area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation … featuring time-varying uncertainty. We obtain survey-consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the US … and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we propose a novel measure of the anchoring of inflation expectations that …

This paper proposes a multivariate stochastic volatility-in-vector autoregression model called the conditional … data so they are associated with changes in the volatility of the shocks hitting the macroeconomy. Second, we advance a new …