The period of extraordinary volatility in euro area headline inflation starting in 2007 raised the question whether … from different models. The combination methods are evaluated for HICP headline inflation and HICP excluding food and energy … volatility in inflation. Overall, we find that, first, forecast combination helps hedge against bad forecast performance and …

Building on the results in Nalewaik (FEDS 2015-93), this work models wage growth and core PCE price inflation as regime … price inflation that becomes much larger after labor markets tighten beyond a certain point. The results are informative for … assessing the likelihood and risks of meeting certain inflation targets on a sustained basis …

inflation are now less well informed by macroeconomic conditions; because expectations are important in the setting of current …-period prices, inflation is therefore less sensitive to macroeconomic conditions. To distinguish between our two hypotheses, we … bring to bear information on inflation expectations from surveys, which allow us to distinguish changes in the sensitivity …

relationship between inflation and unemployment is nonlinear. Using aggregate data we are unable to reject a linear relationship … low compared to when it is high. Nevertheless the simple nonlinear Phillips curves used here suggest a core CPI inflation …

bivariate setup along with GDP: the unemployment rate, the inflation rate, and gross domestic income. We find that the …

heterogeneity. On the one hand, the method uses information on real GDP, inflation, and the unemployment rate for each member state …